Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2017Estimating the Fitness Cost and Benefit of Cefixime Resistance in Neisseria Gonorrhoeae
Gonorrhoea is one of the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infections in England, and more …
Gonorrhoea is one of the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infections in England, and more than half of annual infections occur in men who have sex with men (MSM). As the bacterium has developed resistance to each first-line antibiotic in turn, an improved understanding is needed of fitness benefits and costs of antibiotic resistance to inform control policy and planning. The authors developed a stochastic compartmental model representing the natural history and transmission of cefixime-sensitive…
Risk Analysis | Decision Analysis | Dynamic Transmission | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global -
ArticlePublication 2022Vaccinations versus Lockdowns to Prevent COVID-19 Mortality
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly …
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly available datasets from the Israeli Ministry of Health were used to model the parameters of the pandemic in Israel. The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker was used for quantitative data on government policies. Data on the Israeli economy were taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The models demonstrate that the first lockdown prevented 1022 COVID-19 deaths at the cost…
Decision Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Decision Theory | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | State-Transition | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Middle East & North Africa -
ArticlePublication 2021New Microsimulation Models to Inform Cervical Cancer Control
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis …
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis of cervical cancer, and estimate the long-term impact of preventive interventions. We propose a new health decision modeling framework that de-emphasizes previously used cytologic-colposcopic-histologic diagnoses, which are subjective and lack reproducibility, relying instead on HPV type and duration of infection as the major determinants of model transition probabilities. We posit that new model health states and corollary transitions are universal,…
Decision Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Global -
ArticlePublication 2020Perceptions of COVID-19 around the World
This study evaluates public risk perception of COVID-19 around the world in ten countries across …
This study evaluates public risk perception of COVID-19 around the world in ten countries across Europe, America, and Asia. They found that significant predictors of risk perception included personal experience with the virus, individualistic and prosocial values, hearing about the virus from friends and family, trust in government, science, and medical professionals, personal knowledge of government strategy, and personal and collective efficacy. Although there was substantial variability across cultures, individualistic worldviews, personal experience, prosocial values,…
Risk Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Decision Psychology | Preferences/Values | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2019Assessment of the Feasibility and Cost of Hepatitis C Elimination in Pakistan
This study investigates the feasibility and cost of hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination in Pakistan …
This study investigates the feasibility and cost of hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination in Pakistan using a decision analytical model and microsimulation techniques from 2015 to 2030. Various scenarios, including the status quo and seven elimination strategies, were evaluated based on Pakistan-specific variables. Main outcomes included trends in HCV prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years, and total costs of HCV care. Results suggest that to achieve HCV elimination by 2030, significant scale-up of testing and treatment is…
Decision Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2018Should We Treat Acute Hepatitis C? A Decision and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
This study examines the potential benefits of treating acute hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection compared …
This study examines the potential benefits of treating acute hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection compared to deferring treatment until the chronic phase, utilizing a microsimulation model. By projecting long-term outcomes such as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs, the analysis evaluates the cost-effectiveness of initiating therapy during the acute phase. Results indicate that treating acute HCV increases QALYs by 0.02 and costs by $483 per patient not at risk of transmitting HCV, yielding an incremental…
Decision Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticleWeb Portal 2017PLoS Collection: Prevention, Diagnosis and Treatment of Sexually Transmitted Infections
Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that more than one million new sexually transmitted …
Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that more than one million new sexually transmitted infections (STIs) occur each day, incurring a very substantial burden of morbidity, mortality and additional infections. The pathogens responsible include bacteria, parasites and viruses, and intensive research is needed to address the substantial barriers to diagnosis and treatment of STIs, and the behavioral challenges of prevention. This PLOS collection, published in collaboration with WHO, focuses on global policy and systems…
Dynamic Transmission | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Costing Methods | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2017Estimated Economic Impact of Vaccinations in 73 LMIC, 2001-2020
This analysis estimates the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 …
This analysis estimates the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 vaccine-preventable diseases between 2001 and 2020 in 73 low- and middle-income countries largely supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. The authors used health impact models to estimate the economic impact of achieving forecasted coverages for vaccination against Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae and yellow fever. In…
Dynamic Transmission | Infectious Diseases | Health Outcomes | State-Transition | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ReviewPublication 2017Use of Mathematical Models of Chlamydia Transmission to Address Public Health Policy Questions
This review provides an overview of chlamydia transmission models and offers perspective on how mathematical …
This review provides an overview of chlamydia transmission models and offers perspective on how mathematical modeling has responded over time to additional empirical evidence in order to address policy questions related to prevention of chlamydia infection. The authors reviewed published chlamydia models to understand the range of approaches used for policy analyses and how the studies have responded to developments in the field. The authors identified 47 publications reporting on 29 mathematical models through a…
Dynamic Transmission | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Clinical Care | Health/Medicine | North America