Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2023Benefits and Costs of COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates
Written mid-pandemic, this article evaluates the direct costs and health benefits of requiring COVID-19 vaccinations …
Written mid-pandemic, this article evaluates the direct costs and health benefits of requiring COVID-19 vaccinations for U.S. federal employees and healthcare and private sector workers. These mandates were controversial and some were halted by litigation. If they had been implemented as intended, the net benefits would depend on the course of the pandemic. If a more transmissible variant (such as Omicron) emerges, the net benefits may be large. If the pandemic instead fades, the benefits…
Benefit-Cost Analysis | State-Transition | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Policy/Regulation | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | North America -
ArticlePublication 2022Vaccinations versus Lockdowns to Prevent COVID-19 Mortality
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly …
This analysis estimated the costs associated with preventing Covid-19 deaths by vaccinations versus lockdowns. Publicly available datasets from the Israeli Ministry of Health were used to model the parameters of the pandemic in Israel. The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker was used for quantitative data on government policies. Data on the Israeli economy were taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The models demonstrate that the first lockdown prevented 1022 COVID-19 deaths at the cost…
Decision Theory | State-Transition | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Decision Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Middle East & North Africa -
ArticlePublication 2020Testing for SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies
Antibody testing can determine previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 virus. Recently, the UK government has made …
Antibody testing can determine previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 virus. Recently, the UK government has made antibody testing available to anyone wanting it, even if there is no clinical indication. The purpose of this article is to provide guidance for when to consider antibody testing in individuals with and without symptoms suggestive of current or past SARS-CoV-2 infection. Key points made by the authors include: (1) antibody testing is likely to be most useful 2 weeks…
Probability/Bayes | Technology Assessment | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Test Performance | Clinical Care -
ArticlePublication 2008Cost-Effectiveness of Rapid Point-of-Care Prenatal Syphilis Screening in Sub-Saharan Africa
This paper investigates the cost-effectiveness of using rapid point-of-care tests for prenatal syphilis screening among …
This paper investigates the cost-effectiveness of using rapid point-of-care tests for prenatal syphilis screening among pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa, a region with syphilis prevalence rates as high as 17%, and where traditional multi-test screening methods have been challenging to implement. Focusing on newly available rapid point-of-care screening tests, strategies differed by the initial test [rapid plasma reagin (RPR), immunochromographic strip (ICS)], need for confirmation with Treponema pallidum hemagglutination assay, and number of visits required.…
Technology Assessment | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Costing Methods | Test Performance | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Clinical Care | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2022COVID-19 Response: The Need for Economic Evaluation
COVID-19-related policies are fraught with trade-offs. Many of these trade-offs involve dimensions that can be …
COVID-19-related policies are fraught with trade-offs. Many of these trade-offs involve dimensions that can be quantitatively weighed using economic evaluation, such as those between health and cost outcomes. Other types of dimensions, such as those involving equity or autonomy, can be harder to quantify but should be considered in a comprehensive health policy decision-making context nonetheless. The authors of this New England Journal of Medicine Perspectives article outline how methods of economic evaluation and decision…
Benefit-Cost Analysis | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Global | North America -
ArticlePublication 2021Rational Policymaking during a Pandemic
Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and …
Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and its global impacts are unprecedented, decisions are taken in a highly uncertain, complex, and rapidly changing environment. In such a context, in which human lives and the economy are at stake, the authors argue that using ideas and constructs from modern decision theory, even informally, will make policymaking a more responsible and transparent process.
Decision Theory | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Science/Technology | Global -
ArticlePublication 2021COVID and the Age–VSL Relationship
In this article, the researchers explore the approach used to value COVID-19 mortality risk reductions …
In this article, the researchers explore the approach used to value COVID-19 mortality risk reductions in analyses of lockdowns and other policies. Many rely on a population-average estimate of the value per statistical life (VSL); others adjust VSL for life expectancy at the age of death. The article explores the implications of theory and empirical studies, which suggest that the relationship between age and VSL is uncertain; these uncertainties in turn may affect whether the…
Benefit-Cost Analysis | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Preferences/Values | Government/Law | North America -
ArticlePublication 2020Bayes' Theorem, COVID-19, and Screening Tests
This article reviews the implications of increased testing for COVID-19 using reverse transcriptase polymerase chain …
This article reviews the implications of increased testing for COVID-19 using reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) through the application of Bayes’ Theorem for three hypothetical, stylized case scenarios. The scenarios involve three patients with a low, moderate, and high pre-test probability of COVID-19 infection. The category of low probability would include "asymptomatic individuals in a presumed low prevalence environment" and might vary from 10 to 20%. The category of moderate probability would include "individuals…
Probability/Bayes | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Test Performance | Clinical Care -
ArticlePublication 2020Interpreting COVID-19 Test Results: A Bayesian Approach
This article considers the following question with respect to interpreting the results of polymerase chain reaction …
This article considers the following question with respect to interpreting the results of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays from nasal and pharyngeal swabs for COVID-19 to inform clinical decision making: "While a positive result in an acutely ill patient is straightforward, how should physicians interpret negative tests in patients with suspected COVID-19 infection?" Using an assumption of near-perfect specificity of PCR assays for COVID-19, the authors acknowledge the uncertainty of test sensitivity. They consider two clinical scenarios…
Probability/Bayes | Health/Medicine | Infectious Diseases | Test Performance | Science/Technology | Global