Resources Repository
-
ArticlePublication 2017Predicting Carer Health Effects for Use in Economic Evaluation
Illnesses and interventions can affect the health status of family carers in addition to patients. …
Illnesses and interventions can affect the health status of family carers in addition to patients. However economic evaluation studies rarely incorporate data on health status of carers. In order to investigate whether changes in carer health status could be ‘predicted’ from the health data of those they provide care to, as a means of incorporating carer outcomes in economic evaluation, the authors used regression models to analyse changes in carers’ health status. They derive predictive algorithms based on…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Preferences/Values | Health Outcomes | Health/Medicine | North America | Europe -
ArticlePublication 2017Estimated Economic Impact of Vaccinations in 73 LMIC, 2001-2020
This analysis estimates the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 …
This analysis estimates the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 vaccine-preventable diseases between 2001 and 2020 in 73 low- and middle-income countries largely supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. The authors used health impact models to estimate the economic impact of achieving forecasted coverages for vaccination against Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae and yellow fever. In…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health Outcomes | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Microsimulation | Child/Nutrition | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2017Using Data-Driven Agent-Based Models to Forecast Emerging Infectious Diseases
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which …
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which was subsequently used in the Ebola forecasting challenge. Producing timely and reliable forecasts for an epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, a rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty around the effects of various interventions in place. In this setting,…
Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Microsimulation | Dynamic Simulation | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2017Designing an Optimal HIV Programme for South Africa
This 2017 study compares the traditional and a novel method of comparing cost-effectiveness interventions in …
This 2017 study compares the traditional and a novel method of comparing cost-effectiveness interventions in the context of HIV in South Africa, using a modeling approach. The authors argue that the assumptions of a) independence of interventions, and b) linear scale-up effects do not hold because South Africa has a large domestically funded HIV program with highly saturated coverage levels. The authors therefore aim to better allocate resources for HIV interventions in South Africa when…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Mathematical Models | Operations Research | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2017Likelihood Approach for Calibration of Stochastic Epidemic Models
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens …
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. This paper describes a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and…
Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Dynamic Transmission | Dynamic Simulation | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2016Cost-Effectiveness of Diagnosing HIV Infection During Early Infancy in South Africa
In this study the clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of four different early infant HIV diagnosis …
In this study the clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of four different early infant HIV diagnosis (EID) testing strategies for HIV-exposed infants in South Africa were compared using a microsimulation model. The strategies included (1) no EID (diagnosis only after illness), (2) and (3) testing once (at birth alone or at 6 weeks of age alone), and (4) testing twice (at birth and 6 weeks of age). Findings showed that the testing at birth alone strategy…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Microsimulation | Child/Nutrition | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2016Identifying Cost-Effective Dynamic Policies to Control Epidemics
This paper describes a mathematical decision model for identifying dynamic health policies for controlling epidemics. …
This paper describes a mathematical decision model for identifying dynamic health policies for controlling epidemics. The dynamic policies aim to select the best current intervention based on accumulating epidemic data and the availability of resources at each decision point. An algorithm is proposed to approximate dynamic policies that optimize the population's net health benefit, a performance measure which accounts for both health and monetary outcomes. The authors further illustrate how dynamic policies can be defined and…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Dynamic Transmission | Dynamic Simulation | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2016Prevention of Hepatitis C by Screening and Treatment in U.S. Prisons
This study assesses the health and economic impact of hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening and …
This study assesses the health and economic impact of hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening and treatment in U.S. prisons on the broader HCV epidemic. Employing an agent-based microsimulation model of HCV transmission and disease progression, data from published literature inform the analysis. The target populations include individuals in U.S. prisons and the general community over a 30-year timeframe, adopting a societal perspective. Interventions encompass risk-based and universal opt-out HCV screening in prisons, followed by treatment…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2016Rotavirus Vaccines Contribute Towards UHC in A Mixed Public–Private Healthcare System
This extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) evaluates the non-health benefits of rotavirus vaccination in Malaysia from …
This extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) evaluates the non-health benefits of rotavirus vaccination in Malaysia from the household’s perspective. The authors found that rotavirus vaccination reduces rotavirus episodes and expenditure substantially and provides financial risk protection to all income groups. Although the rich are paying more out of pocket than the poor by utilizing more expensive healthcare, the poor are paying more in proportion to household income. Poverty reduction benefits are concentrated amongst the poorest two…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Costing Methods | Child/Nutrition | Social Determinants | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Asia & Pacific