Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2013Estimated Mortality Impact of Vaccinations 2011–2020 in 73 GAVI Alliance Countries
From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted …
From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted by the GAVI Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the impact of vaccination in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance. The number of deaths averted in persons projected to be vaccinated during 2011–2020 was estimated for ten antigens: hepatitis B, yellow fever, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Japanese…
Global Governance | Infectious Diseases | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Microsimulation | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2018Equity Impact Vaccines May Have on Averting Deaths and Medical Impoverishment
In this analysis, authors estimated the number of deaths averted and the number of cases …
In this analysis, authors estimated the number of deaths averted and the number of cases of medical impoverishment averted of ten antigens and their corresponding vaccines across income quintiles for forty-one low- and middle-income countries. The study found that vaccines administered between 2016 and 2030 would prevent 36 million deaths. Vaccines will have the greatest impact on reducing cases of poverty caused by hepatitis B, helping an estimated 14 million people avoid medical impoverishment. An…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Global Governance | Infectious Diseases | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Child/Nutrition | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2017Policy Makers, the International Community and the Population: Case Study on HIV/AIDS
A four-period game is developed between a policy maker, the international community, and the population. …
A four-period game is developed between a policy maker, the international community, and the population. This research supplements, through implementing strategic interaction, earlier research analyzing "one player at a time." The first two players distribute funds between preventing and treating diseases. The population reacts by degree of risky behavior which may cause no disease, disease contraction, recovery, sickness/death. More funds to prevention implies less disease contraction but higher death rate given disease contraction. The cost…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Decision Psychology | Global Governance | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2016Cost-Effectiveness of Routine Vaccination With a Live-Attenuated Dengue Vaccine: Model Comparison
Large Phase III trials across Asia and Latin America have demonstrated the efficacy of a recombinant, …
Large Phase III trials across Asia and Latin America have demonstrated the efficacy of a recombinant, live-attenuated dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia) over the first 25 months following vaccination. Subsequent data collected in the longer-term follow-up phase, however, have raised concerns about a potential increase in hospitalization risk of subsequent dengue infections, in particular among young, dengue-naïve vaccinees. This paper reports predictions from eight independent modelling groups on the long-term safety, public health impact, and cost-effectiveness of routine…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Global Governance | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Dynamic Transmission | Child/Nutrition | Health Systems | Climate/Environment | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2021New Microsimulation Models to Inform Cervical Cancer Control
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis …
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis of cervical cancer, and estimate the long-term impact of preventive interventions. We propose a new health decision modeling framework that de-emphasizes previously used cytologic-colposcopic-histologic diagnoses, which are subjective and lack reproducibility, relying instead on HPV type and duration of infection as the major determinants of model transition probabilities. We posit that new model health states and corollary transitions are universal,…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Decision Analysis | Global -
ArticlePublication 2017Increasing Vaccination: Putting Psychological Science into Action
Vaccination is one of the great achievements of the 20th century, yet persistent public health …
Vaccination is one of the great achievements of the 20th century, yet persistent public health problems include inadequate, delayed, and unstable vaccination uptake. Psychology offers three general propositions for understanding and intervening to increase uptake where vaccines are available and affordable. The first proposition is that thoughts and feelings can motivate getting vaccinated. Hundreds of studies have shown that risk beliefs and anticipated regret about infectious disease correlate reliably with getting vaccinated; low confidence in…
Preferences/Values | Decision Psychology | Global Governance | Infectious Diseases | Social Determinants | Policy/Regulation | Culture/Society | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global | North America -
ArticlePublication 2017Cost-Effectiveness of Testing and Treatment for Latent TB
Testing for and treating latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is among the main strategies to achieve …
Testing for and treating latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is among the main strategies to achieve TB elimination in the United States. This analysis estimated health outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness of LTBI testing and treatment among non-US born residents with and without medical comorbidities (e.g., diabetes, HIV infection, and end-stage renal disease). A decision analytic tree and Markov cohort simulation model was used to compare the following strategies: no testing, tuberculin skin test (TST), interferon gamma release assay…
Test Performance | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | State-Transition | Microsimulation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Global | North America -
ArticlePublication 2017Estimated Economic Impact of Vaccinations in 73 LMIC, 2001-2020
This analysis estimates the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 …
This analysis estimates the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 vaccine-preventable diseases between 2001 and 2020 in 73 low- and middle-income countries largely supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. The authors used health impact models to estimate the economic impact of achieving forecasted coverages for vaccination against Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae and yellow fever. In…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Health Outcomes | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Microsimulation | Child/Nutrition | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2016Funding Gap for Immunization Across 94 Low- and Middle-Income Countries
This analysis estimates immunization program costs, potentially available financing, and resulting funding gap for 94 …
This analysis estimates immunization program costs, potentially available financing, and resulting funding gap for 94 low- and middle-income countries over the five-year period of 2016–2020. Vaccine financing by country governments, GAVI, and other development sources was forecasted for vaccine, supply chain, and service delivery based on an analysis of comprehensive multi-year plans together with a series of scenarios. The authors found that that delivery of full vaccination programs across the 94 countries would result in a total…
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Global Governance | Infectious Diseases | Costing Methods | Mathematical Models | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific