Resources Repository
-
Tools/ModelsPublication, Teaching Resource 2017Publicly Available Software Tools for Decision-Makers During an Emergent Epidemic
Epidemics and emerging infectious diseases are becoming an increasing threat to global populations-challenging public health …
Epidemics and emerging infectious diseases are becoming an increasing threat to global populations-challenging public health practitioners, decision makers and researchers to plan, prepare, identify and respond to outbreaks in near real-timeframes. The aim of this research is to evaluate the range of public domain and freely available software epidemic modelling tools. Twenty freely utilizable software tools underwent assessment of software usability, utility and key functionalities. Stochastic and agent based tools were found to be highly…
Dynamic Simulation | Mathematical Models | Health Systems | Infectious Diseases | Dynamic Transmission | Climate/Environment | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Quantitative Literacy -
ArticlePublication 2011Dynamic Policies for Controlling Spread of Emerging Infections
This paper illustrates the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control …
This paper illustrates the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control of a novel strain of influenza, where two types of interventions are assumed to be available during the epidemic: (1) vaccines and antiviral drugs, and (2) transmission reducing measures, such as social distancing or mask use, that may be turned "on" or "off" repeatedly during the course of epidemic. A modeling approach is described for developing dynamic health policies that allow…
Dynamic Simulation | Mathematical Models | Health Systems | Infectious Diseases | Dynamic Transmission | Policy/Regulation | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Global -
ArticlePublication 2017Catastrophic Costs Potentially Averted by TB Control in India and South Africa
This study estimated the reduction in tuberculosis-related catastrophic costs with an aggressive expansion of tuberculosis …
This study estimated the reduction in tuberculosis-related catastrophic costs with an aggressive expansion of tuberculosis services in India and South Africa from 2016 to 2035, in line with the End TB Strategy. The authors investigated three intervention scenarios: improved treatment of drug-sensitive tuberculosis; improved treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis; and expansion of access to tuberculosis care through intensified case finding (South Africa only). In India and South Africa, improvements in treatment for drug-sensitive and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis…
Mathematical Models | Health Systems | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2019Health and Financial Benefits of Averting Malaria in Zambia: An ECEA
This study used the extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) to examine impact of the hypothetical rollout …
This study used the extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) to examine impact of the hypothetical rollout of the malaria vaccine RTS,S/AS01 in Zambia on the health benefits of children under five, and financial benefits on their households. The authors assumed a three-dose vaccination schedule (over 6-9 months), and vaccine cost of US$5 per dose. To assess vaccine impact, for each income quintile, they computed the number of under-five malaria deaths prevented, the household out-of-pocket (OOP) malaria-related…
Mathematical Models | Health Systems | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2019Spatial Distribution and Characteristics of HIV
This article, published in Tropical Medicine & International Health, aims to identify the spatial and …
This article, published in Tropical Medicine & International Health, aims to identify the spatial and temporal trends, and epidemiologic correlates, of HIV clusters in Ethiopia. The authors use biomarker and survey data from the 2005, 2011, and 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), and the spatial-temporal distribution of HIV is estimated using the Kulldorff spatial scan statistic, a likelihood-based method for determining clustering. The study results indicate that in Ethiopia, geographic HIV clusters are…
Mathematical Models | Health Systems | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2019Cost-Effectiveness of Latent TB Screening before Immigration to Low-Incidence Countries
Despite prospective migrants to countries where the incidence of TB is low receiving TB screening …
Despite prospective migrants to countries where the incidence of TB is low receiving TB screening for active infections, screening for latent TB infection before immigration is rare. The authors used discrete event simulation to evaluate the cost-effectiveness preimmigration latent TB infection screening for migrants to low-incidence countries. They calculated cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained for migrants from countries with different TB incidences. Their analysis when combined with research on sustainability, acceptability, and program implementation can…
Dynamic Simulation | Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2017Getting it Right When Budgets are Tight: Prioritizing Responses to HIV Epidemics
Prioritizing investments across health interventions is complicated by the nonlinear relationship between intervention coverage and …
Prioritizing investments across health interventions is complicated by the nonlinear relationship between intervention coverage and epidemiological outcomes. It can be difficult for countries to know which interventions to prioritize for greatest epidemiological impact, particularly when budgets are uncertain.The authors examined four case studies of HIV epidemics in diverse settings, each with different characteristics. These case studies were based on public data available for Belarus, Peru, Togo, and Myanmar. The Optima HIV model and software package…
Mathematical Models | Health Systems | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Costing Methods | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2017Designing an Optimal HIV Programme for South Africa
This 2017 study compares the traditional and a novel method of comparing cost-effectiveness interventions in …
This 2017 study compares the traditional and a novel method of comparing cost-effectiveness interventions in the context of HIV in South Africa, using a modeling approach. The authors argue that the assumptions of a) independence of interventions, and b) linear scale-up effects do not hold because South Africa has a large domestically funded HIV program with highly saturated coverage levels. The authors therefore aim to better allocate resources for HIV interventions in South Africa when…
Mathematical Models | Health Systems | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Operations Research | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2017Policy Makers, the International Community and the Population: Case Study on HIV/AIDS
A four-period game is developed between a policy maker, the international community, and the population. …
A four-period game is developed between a policy maker, the international community, and the population. This research supplements, through implementing strategic interaction, earlier research analyzing "one player at a time." The first two players distribute funds between preventing and treating diseases. The population reacts by degree of risky behavior which may cause no disease, disease contraction, recovery, sickness/death. More funds to prevention implies less disease contraction but higher death rate given disease contraction. The cost…
Mathematical Models | Health Systems | Infectious Diseases | Decision Psychology | Priority Setting/Ethics | Global Governance | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global