Resources Repository
-
ArticlePublication 2017Using Data-Driven Agent-Based Models to Forecast Emerging Infectious Diseases
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which …
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which was subsequently used in the Ebola forecasting challenge. Producing timely and reliable forecasts for an epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, a rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty around the effects of various interventions in place. In this setting,…
Infectious Diseases | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Simulation | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2017Household Energy Interventions in Haryana, India: An Extended CEA
In this paper, the authors examine the use of solid fuels as a primary energy …
In this paper, the authors examine the use of solid fuels as a primary energy source for cooking in India, which contributes to high rates of infant and child mortality as well as other diseases caused by household air pollution (HAP). To achieve the widespread adoption of one of three interventions – a mud chimney stove, a blower stove, and LPG use—the government needs to offer subsidies to households using solid fuels. While the reduction…
Social Determinants | Priority Setting/Ethics | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Environmental Health | Policy/Regulation | Climate/Environment | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Science/Technology | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2017Reduced Burden of Childhood Diarrheal Diseases through Increased Access to Water and Sanitation in India: Modeling Analysis
This analysis estimates the health and economic benefits of scaling up the coverage of piped …
This analysis estimates the health and economic benefits of scaling up the coverage of piped water and improved sanitation to a near-universal 95% level among Indian households. The authors used an agent-based microsimulation platform, IndiaSim, to model disease progression and individual healthcare-seeking behavior in India, and use ECEA to estimate health and economic outcomes over time. They found that scaling up access to piped water and improved sanitation could avert 43,352 diarrheal episodes and 68…
Social Determinants | Priority Setting/Ethics | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Environmental Health | Economics/Finance | Energy/Engineering | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2017Designing an Optimal HIV Programme for South Africa
This 2017 study compares the traditional and a novel method of comparing cost-effectiveness interventions in …
This 2017 study compares the traditional and a novel method of comparing cost-effectiveness interventions in the context of HIV in South Africa, using a modeling approach. The authors argue that the assumptions of a) independence of interventions, and b) linear scale-up effects do not hold because South Africa has a large domestically funded HIV program with highly saturated coverage levels. The authors therefore aim to better allocate resources for HIV interventions in South Africa when…
Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Operations Research | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2017Policy Makers, the International Community and the Population: Case Study on HIV/AIDS
A four-period game is developed between a policy maker, the international community, and the population. …
A four-period game is developed between a policy maker, the international community, and the population. This research supplements, through implementing strategic interaction, earlier research analyzing "one player at a time." The first two players distribute funds between preventing and treating diseases. The population reacts by degree of risky behavior which may cause no disease, disease contraction, recovery, sickness/death. More funds to prevention implies less disease contraction but higher death rate given disease contraction. The cost…
Infectious Diseases | Decision Psychology | Priority Setting/Ethics | Mathematical Models | Health Systems | Global Governance | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2017Household Expenditures on Pneumonia and Diarrhoea Treatment
This article, published in BMJ Global Health, quantifies household out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditure for treatment of …
This article, published in BMJ Global Health, quantifies household out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditure for treatment of childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea and estimates its impact on poverty for different socioeconomic groups in Ethiopia. The study finds that wealthier and urban households have higher OOP payments, but poorer and rural households are more likely to be impoverished due to medical payments. The present circumstances call for revisiting the existing health financing strategy for high-priority services that place a…
Infectious Diseases | Costing Methods | Child/Nutrition | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2017Likelihood Approach for Calibration of Stochastic Epidemic Models
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens …
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. This paper describes a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and…
Infectious Diseases | Dynamic Transmission | Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Simulation | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2017Cost-Effectiveness of a Policy Strategy to Decrease Sodium Intake: Global Analysis
The objective of this study was to assess the cost effectiveness of a government policy combining …
The objective of this study was to assess the cost effectiveness of a government policy combining targeted industry agreements and public education to reduce sodium intake in 183 countries worldwide. To account for heterogeneity in efficacy across countries, a range of scenarios were evaluated, including 10%, 30%, 0.5 g/day, and 1.5 g/day sodium reductions achieved over 10 years. Country specific costs of a sodium reduction policy were estimated using the WHO Noncommunicable Disease Costing Tool. Country…
Social Determinants | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Policy/Regulation | Food/Agriculture | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Global -
ArticlePublication 2016Funding Gap for Immunization Across 94 Low- and Middle-Income Countries
This analysis estimates immunization program costs, potentially available financing, and resulting funding gap for 94 …
This analysis estimates immunization program costs, potentially available financing, and resulting funding gap for 94 low- and middle-income countries over the five-year period of 2016–2020. Vaccine financing by country governments, GAVI, and other development sources was forecasted for vaccine, supply chain, and service delivery based on an analysis of comprehensive multi-year plans together with a series of scenarios. The authors found that that delivery of full vaccination programs across the 94 countries would result in a total…
Infectious Diseases | Costing Methods | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Global Governance | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific