Resources Repository
-
ArticlePublication 2022Modeling the Relative Risk of Incidence and Mortality of Select Vaccine-Preventable Diseases
Immunization is one of the most effective public health interventions, saving millions of lives every …
Immunization is one of the most effective public health interventions, saving millions of lives every year. Ethiopia has seen gradual improvements in immunization coverage and access to child health care services; however, inequalities in child mortality across wealth quintiles and regions remain persistent. This paper models the relative distributional incidence and mortality of four vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) (rotavirus diarrhea, human papillomavirus, measles, and pneumonia) by wealth quintile and geographic region in Ethiopia. The authors approach…
Evidence Synthesis | Priority Setting/Ethics | Social Determinants | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2021New Microsimulation Models to Inform Cervical Cancer Control
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis …
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis of cervical cancer, and estimate the long-term impact of preventive interventions. We propose a new health decision modeling framework that de-emphasizes previously used cytologic-colposcopic-histologic diagnoses, which are subjective and lack reproducibility, relying instead on HPV type and duration of infection as the major determinants of model transition probabilities. We posit that new model health states and corollary transitions are universal,…
Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Global -
ArticlePublication 2015Broader Economic Impact of Vaccination: Reviewing and Appraising the Strength of Evidence
Economic evaluations of public health programs such as immunization often consider only direct health benefits and …
Economic evaluations of public health programs such as immunization often consider only direct health benefits and medical cost savings. Evidence linking immunization to important benefits in indicators such as childhood development, household behavior, and other macro-economic data are unclear. A conceptual framework of the pathways between immunization and these broader economic benefits was developed through expert consultation. The authors obtained articles from previous reviews, snowballing, and expert consultation, and associated them with one of the pathways and assessed them using modified Grading…
Evidence Synthesis | Priority Setting/Ethics | Social Determinants | Infectious Diseases | Preferences/Values | Costing Methods | Benefit-Cost Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Economics/Finance | Education/Labor | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2013Estimated Mortality Impact of Vaccinations 2011–2020 in 73 GAVI Alliance Countries
From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted …
From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted by the GAVI Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the impact of vaccination in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance. The number of deaths averted in persons projected to be vaccinated during 2011–2020 was estimated for ten antigens: hepatitis B, yellow fever, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Japanese…
Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | Dynamic Transmission | State-Transition | Infectious Diseases | Health Outcomes | Global Governance | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2017Cost-Effectiveness of Testing and Treatment for Latent TB
Testing for and treating latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is among the main strategies to achieve …
Testing for and treating latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is among the main strategies to achieve TB elimination in the United States. This analysis estimated health outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness of LTBI testing and treatment among non-US born residents with and without medical comorbidities (e.g., diabetes, HIV infection, and end-stage renal disease). A decision analytic tree and Markov cohort simulation model was used to compare the following strategies: no testing, tuberculin skin test (TST), interferon gamma release assay…
Microsimulation | Test Performance | State-Transition | Infectious Diseases | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Global | North America -
ArticlePublication 2017Estimated Economic Impact of Vaccinations in 73 LMIC, 2001-2020
This analysis estimates the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 …
This analysis estimates the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 vaccine-preventable diseases between 2001 and 2020 in 73 low- and middle-income countries largely supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. The authors used health impact models to estimate the economic impact of achieving forecasted coverages for vaccination against Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae and yellow fever. In…
Microsimulation | Dynamic Transmission | State-Transition | Infectious Diseases | Health Outcomes | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2017Using Data-Driven Agent-Based Models to Forecast Emerging Infectious Diseases
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which …
This paper describes an agent-based model framework developed to forecast the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, which was subsequently used in the Ebola forecasting challenge. Producing timely and reliable forecasts for an epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, a rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty around the effects of various interventions in place. In this setting,…
Dynamic Simulation | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2017Designing an Optimal HIV Programme for South Africa
This 2017 study compares the traditional and a novel method of comparing cost-effectiveness interventions in …
This 2017 study compares the traditional and a novel method of comparing cost-effectiveness interventions in the context of HIV in South Africa, using a modeling approach. The authors argue that the assumptions of a) independence of interventions, and b) linear scale-up effects do not hold because South Africa has a large domestically funded HIV program with highly saturated coverage levels. The authors therefore aim to better allocate resources for HIV interventions in South Africa when…
Priority Setting/Ethics | Mathematical Models | Operations Research | Infectious Diseases | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2017Likelihood Approach for Calibration of Stochastic Epidemic Models
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens …
Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. This paper describes a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and…
Dynamic Simulation | Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Transmission | Infectious Diseases | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Global