Resources Repository
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GuidelinesPublication 2011HPV Vaccine Introduction in LMIC's: Guidance on the Use of Cost-Effectiveness Models
This article is a literature review of HPV vaccination models suitable for low-income and middle-income …
This article is a literature review of HPV vaccination models suitable for low-income and middle-income country use to provide information about the feasibility of using such models in a developing country setting. The authors evaluated models in terms of their capacity, requirements, limitations and comparability. Their literature review identified six HPV vaccination models suitable for low-income and middle-income country use and representative of the literature in terms of provenance and model structure. Each model was…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Global | Clinical Care | Infectious Diseases | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 2023Simulation-Based Comparative Effectiveness Analysis of Policies to Improve Global Maternal Health Outcomes
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) …
The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) to less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births by 2030, with no individual country exceeding 140. However, on current trends the goals are unlikely to be met. The authors used an empirically calibrated Global Maternal Health microsimulation model, which simulates individual women in 200 countries and territories to evaluate the impact of different interventions and strategies from 2022…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Global | Clinical Care | Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Health Systems | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2021New Microsimulation Models to Inform Cervical Cancer Control
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis …
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis of cervical cancer, and estimate the long-term impact of preventive interventions. We propose a new health decision modeling framework that de-emphasizes previously used cytologic-colposcopic-histologic diagnoses, which are subjective and lack reproducibility, relying instead on HPV type and duration of infection as the major determinants of model transition probabilities. We posit that new model health states and corollary transitions are universal,…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Global | Infectious Diseases | Microsimulation | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis -
ReportPublication 2015Chapter 4: Cervical Cancer
This chapter focuses on the possibility of primary prevention of cervical cancer as a result …
This chapter focuses on the possibility of primary prevention of cervical cancer as a result of the introduction of two commercially available vaccines against human papillomavirus (HPV). Few low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have initiated or sustained cytology-based cervical cancer prevention programs, and these countries experience very high incidence and mortality rates. Fortunately, alternative strategies to prevent cervical cancer have been investigated and extensively evaluated in these settings. The authors report findings from cost-effectiveness analyses…
Mathematical Models | Global | Clinical Care | Infectious Diseases | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 2014Cost-Effectiveness of Female HPV Vaccination in 179 Countries: A PRIME Modelling Study
The authors present a simple generic model, Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME), …
The authors present a simple generic model, Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME), used to assess cost-effectiveness and health effects of vaccination of girls against HPV before sexual debut in terms of burden of cervical cancer and mortality. The PRIME models incidence according to proposed vaccine efficacy against HPV 16/18, vaccine coverage, cervical cancer incidence and mortality, and HPV type distribution. It assumes lifelong vaccine protection and no changes to other screening programs…
Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Global | Infectious Diseases | Health Outcomes | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2011Dynamic Policies for Controlling Spread of Emerging Infections
This paper illustrates the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control …
This paper illustrates the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control of a novel strain of influenza, where two types of interventions are assumed to be available during the epidemic: (1) vaccines and antiviral drugs, and (2) transmission reducing measures, such as social distancing or mask use, that may be turned "on" or "off" repeatedly during the course of epidemic. A modeling approach is described for developing dynamic health policies that allow…
Mathematical Models | Global | Policy/Regulation | Infectious Diseases | Dynamic Transmission | Dynamic Simulation | Health Systems | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
ReviewPublication 2003Public Health Policy and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
This chapter presents an overview of the uses for cost-effectiveness analysis and disease-simulation modeling to …
This chapter presents an overview of the uses for cost-effectiveness analysis and disease-simulation modeling to rigorously evaluate alternatives to reduce mortality from cervical cancer. Scientific advances have provided opportunities over time to revisit strategies for cervical cancer prevention. How to invest health resources wisely, such that public health benefits are maximized-and opportunity costs are minimized-is a critical question in the setting of enhanced cytologic screening methods, human papillomavirus DNA testing, and vaccine development. Developing sound…
Mathematical Models | Global | Policy/Regulation | Infectious Diseases | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2023Simulation-Based Estimates and Projections of Global, Regional and Country-Level Maternal Mortality by Cause, 1990-2050
While progress has been made globally to reduce maternal deaths, measurement remains a challenge given …
While progress has been made globally to reduce maternal deaths, measurement remains a challenge given the many causes and frequent underreporting of maternal deaths. The authors developed a structural microsimulation model of Global Maternal Health (GMatH) for 200 countries and territories using demographic, epidemiologic, clinical and health system data synthesized from the medical literature, Civil Registration Vital Statistics systems and Demographic and Health Survey data. The model was calibrated to empirical data from 1990 to…
Calibration/Validation | Global | Clinical Care | Health Outcomes | Evidence Synthesis | Microsimulation | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Health Systems | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2023Cost-Effectiveness of Novel TB Vaccines: A Modeling Study
A modeling study assessed future costs, cost-savings, and cost-effectiveness of introducing novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccines …
A modeling study assessed future costs, cost-savings, and cost-effectiveness of introducing novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccines in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) for a range of product characteristics and delivery strategies, compared to a ‘no-new-vaccine’ counterfactual. Vaccine scenarios considered two vaccine product profiles (one targeted at infants, one at adolescents/adults), both assumed to prevent progression to active TB. Vaccine introduction was estimated to require substantial near-term resources, offset by future cost-savings from averted TB burden.…
Mathematical Models | Global | Infectious Diseases | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine