Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2016Challenges of Prioritization
Cost-effectiveness analysis has traditionally been applied primarily to very specific interventions, such as drugs and …
Cost-effectiveness analysis has traditionally been applied primarily to very specific interventions, such as drugs and diagnostics; in addition, the evidence base drawn on for evaluating such interventions is relatively good, given the medical research industry surrounding their testing. However, with increasing success in controlling infectious diseases, many of the health challenges facing countries concern broad threats to health with multiple causes, such as obesity, where the relationship between policy action and health benefit is not…
Benefit-Cost Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Global | Mental Health | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2022COVID-19 Response: The Need for Economic Evaluation
COVID-19-related policies are fraught with trade-offs. Many of these trade-offs involve dimensions that can be …
COVID-19-related policies are fraught with trade-offs. Many of these trade-offs involve dimensions that can be quantitatively weighed using economic evaluation, such as those between health and cost outcomes. Other types of dimensions, such as those involving equity or autonomy, can be harder to quantify but should be considered in a comprehensive health policy decision-making context nonetheless. The authors of this New England Journal of Medicine Perspectives article outline how methods of economic evaluation and decision…
Benefit-Cost Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Global | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2021New Microsimulation Models to Inform Cervical Cancer Control
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis …
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis of cervical cancer, and estimate the long-term impact of preventive interventions. We propose a new health decision modeling framework that de-emphasizes previously used cytologic-colposcopic-histologic diagnoses, which are subjective and lack reproducibility, relying instead on HPV type and duration of infection as the major determinants of model transition probabilities. We posit that new model health states and corollary transitions are universal,…
Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Decision Analysis | Global | Infectious Diseases | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation -
ArticlePublication 2020Perceptions of COVID-19 around the World
This study evaluates public risk perception of COVID-19 around the world in ten countries across …
This study evaluates public risk perception of COVID-19 around the world in ten countries across Europe, America, and Asia. They found that significant predictors of risk perception included personal experience with the virus, individualistic and prosocial values, hearing about the virus from friends and family, trust in government, science, and medical professionals, personal knowledge of government strategy, and personal and collective efficacy. Although there was substantial variability across cultures, individualistic worldviews, personal experience, prosocial values,…
Risk Analysis | Global | Infectious Diseases | Decision Psychology | Preferences/Values | Culture/Society | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2018Poverty Reduction & Equity Benefits of Measles, Rotavirus and Pneumococcal Vaccines in LMICs
This study uses the extended cost effectiveness analysis (ECEA) to evaluate the impact of immunization …
This study uses the extended cost effectiveness analysis (ECEA) to evaluate the impact of immunization against measles, severe pneumococcal disease and severe rotavirus for birth cohorts vaccinated over 2016–2030 for three scenarios in 41 Gavi-eligible countries: no immunization, current immunization coverage forecasts and the current immunization coverage enhanced with funding support. Following the distribution of the cases by socioeconomic group, the study found that the number of catastrophic health costs (CHC) cases attributable to measles,…
Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Global | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Child/Nutrition | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2017Policy Makers, the International Community and the Population: Case Study on HIV/AIDS
A four-period game is developed between a policy maker, the international community, and the population. …
A four-period game is developed between a policy maker, the international community, and the population. This research supplements, through implementing strategic interaction, earlier research analyzing "one player at a time." The first two players distribute funds between preventing and treating diseases. The population reacts by degree of risky behavior which may cause no disease, disease contraction, recovery, sickness/death. More funds to prevention implies less disease contraction but higher death rate given disease contraction. The cost…
Mathematical Models | Global | Infectious Diseases | Decision Psychology | Priority Setting/Ethics | Health Systems | Global Governance | Economics/Finance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2023Cost-Effectiveness of Novel TB Vaccines: A Modeling Study
A modeling study assessed future costs, cost-savings, and cost-effectiveness of introducing novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccines …
A modeling study assessed future costs, cost-savings, and cost-effectiveness of introducing novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccines in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) for a range of product characteristics and delivery strategies, compared to a ‘no-new-vaccine’ counterfactual. Vaccine scenarios considered two vaccine product profiles (one targeted at infants, one at adolescents/adults), both assumed to prevent progression to active TB. Vaccine introduction was estimated to require substantial near-term resources, offset by future cost-savings from averted TB burden.…
Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Global | Infectious Diseases | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2021Rational Policymaking during a Pandemic
Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and …
Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and its global impacts are unprecedented, decisions are taken in a highly uncertain, complex, and rapidly changing environment. In such a context, in which human lives and the economy are at stake, the authors argue that using ideas and constructs from modern decision theory, even informally, will make policymaking a more responsible and transparent process.
Decision Theory | Global | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 2020Valuing COVID-19 Mortality Risk
In this article, the author evaluates whether conventional estimates of the value per statistical life …
In this article, the author evaluates whether conventional estimates of the value per statistical life (VSL) in the United States (about $10 million) are appropriate for evaluating policies that affect risk of COVID-19. This estimate may be too large, because: (1) VSL estimates marginal values but COVID-19 risks can be non-marginal; (2) VSL is estimated for the average resident, but COVID-19 mortality is concentrated among the elderly; and (3) the pandemic has caused substantial losses…
Benefit-Cost Analysis | Global | Infectious Diseases | Preferences/Values | Government/Law