Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2021New Microsimulation Models to Inform Cervical Cancer Control
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis …
Health decision models consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis of cervical cancer, and estimate the long-term impact of preventive interventions. We propose a new health decision modeling framework that de-emphasizes previously used cytologic-colposcopic-histologic diagnoses, which are subjective and lack reproducibility, relying instead on HPV type and duration of infection as the major determinants of model transition probabilities. We posit that new model health states and corollary transitions are universal,…
Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | Global | Infectious Diseases | Calibration/Validation | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis -
Resource PackWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2018Resource Pack: Cervical Cancer Models
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, is a collection of …
This resource pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, is a collection of models of HPV-related cervical cancer, differing in design, structure and features based on analytic objectives. In many ways, HPV and its related diseases represent a prototypical public health problem given the communicable and non-communicable nature of disease, opportunities for intervention along the entire disease spectrum (e.g., primary and secondary prevention, diagnosis, treatment), the varied ages at which interventions are targeted…
Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | Global | Infectious Diseases | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Calibration/Validation | Dynamic Simulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
ReviewPublication 2016Decision Support for Infectious Disease Control
This report from RAND reviews decision-support tools, including models and nonmodeling approaches, that are relevant to …
This report from RAND reviews decision-support tools, including models and nonmodeling approaches, that are relevant to infectious disease prevention, detection, and response and aligns these tools with real-world policy questions that the tools can help address. This overview is designed to help modelers and other technical experts understand the questions that policymakers will raise and the decisions they must make. The report also presents policymakers with the capabilities and limitations of the different tools that may…
Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | Global | Infectious Diseases | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Dynamic Simulation | Global Governance | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Military/Defense -
Lesson/ModuleWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2014Maths and Our Health
This learning module provides teaching packs to explore biomedical real-world applications of probability and statistics …
This learning module provides teaching packs to explore biomedical real-world applications of probability and statistics in decision-making. Each pack provides videos and supplemental materials, including presentations, worksheets, and games. Topics include: “Eating Bacon Sandwiches is Bad for You!” Evaluating Risk Epidemics: Modelling with Mathematics Life Saving Maths: How Does Vaccination Work? The Economics of Health: How Do We Decide? The Test is Positive: But What Are the Odds It’s Wrong?
Mathematical Models | Decision Theory | Global | Infectious Diseases | Test Performance | Decision Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Middle School | High School | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Quantitative Literacy -
ReviewPublication 2008Cost-Effectiveness of Vaccination: Review of Modelling Approaches
This review examines the modelling approaches used in cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of vaccination programs. After …
This review examines the modelling approaches used in cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of vaccination programs. After overviewing the key attributes of models used in CEAs, a framework for categorizing theoretical models is presented. Categories are based on three main attributes: static/dynamic; stochastic/deterministic; and aggregate/individual based.
Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | Global | Infectious Diseases | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Dynamic Simulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 2023Cost-Effectiveness of Novel TB Vaccines: A Modeling Study
A modeling study assessed future costs, cost-savings, and cost-effectiveness of introducing novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccines …
A modeling study assessed future costs, cost-savings, and cost-effectiveness of introducing novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccines in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) for a range of product characteristics and delivery strategies, compared to a ‘no-new-vaccine’ counterfactual. Vaccine scenarios considered two vaccine product profiles (one targeted at infants, one at adolescents/adults), both assumed to prevent progression to active TB. Vaccine introduction was estimated to require substantial near-term resources, offset by future cost-savings from averted TB burden.…
Mathematical Models | Global | Infectious Diseases | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2022Re-Evaluating the Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Tuberculosis Prevention for Modern ART Cohorts
TB preventive therapy (TPT) is widely accepted to be cost-effective for reducing TB incidence in …
TB preventive therapy (TPT) is widely accepted to be cost-effective for reducing TB incidence in HIV-infected individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, as individuals initiate ART earlier in the course of disease, TB incidence is lower, and it is unclear how ART cost-effectiveness has changed. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of TPT in contemporary ART cohorts. The authors developed a microsimulation model of TB and HIV and parameterised it using data from a large HIV…
Microsimulation | Global | Infectious Diseases | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Health/Medicine | Sub-Saharan Africa -
ArticlePublication 2021Rational Policymaking during a Pandemic
Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and …
Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and its global impacts are unprecedented, decisions are taken in a highly uncertain, complex, and rapidly changing environment. In such a context, in which human lives and the economy are at stake, the authors argue that using ideas and constructs from modern decision theory, even informally, will make policymaking a more responsible and transparent process.
Decision Theory | Global | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Policy/Regulation | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 2018Poverty Reduction & Equity Benefits of Measles, Rotavirus and Pneumococcal Vaccines in LMICs
This study uses the extended cost effectiveness analysis (ECEA) to evaluate the impact of immunization …
This study uses the extended cost effectiveness analysis (ECEA) to evaluate the impact of immunization against measles, severe pneumococcal disease and severe rotavirus for birth cohorts vaccinated over 2016–2030 for three scenarios in 41 Gavi-eligible countries: no immunization, current immunization coverage forecasts and the current immunization coverage enhanced with funding support. Following the distribution of the cases by socioeconomic group, the study found that the number of catastrophic health costs (CHC) cases attributable to measles,…
Mathematical Models | Global | Infectious Diseases | Priority Setting/Ethics | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Health/Medicine