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ArticlePublication 2017Simulation of Growth Trajectories of Childhood Obesity into Adulthood
The authors developed a simulation model to estimate the risk of adult obesity at the age …
The authors developed a simulation model to estimate the risk of adult obesity at the age of 35 years for the current population of children in the United States. They used pooled height and weight data from five nationally representative longitudinal studies totaling 176,720 observations from 41,567 children and adults to simulate growth trajectories across the life course adjusted for secular trends. Using 1,000 virtual populations of 1 million children through the age of 19 years, representative of the…
Microsimulation | Health Outcomes | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2019Cost-Effectiveness of Community-Based Childhood Obesity Prevention Interventions in Australia
This study examined the cost-effectiveness of community-based obesity prevention interventions (CBIs) consisting of strategies to …
This study examined the cost-effectiveness of community-based obesity prevention interventions (CBIs) consisting of strategies to promote healthy eating and physical activity for Australian children aged between 5-18 years. A multiple cohort Markov model that simulates diseases associated with overweight and obesity was used to estimate the health benefits, measured as health-adjusted life years (HALYs) and healthcare-related cost offsets from diseases averted due to exposure to the intervention. Health and cost outcomes were estimated over the…
State-Transition | Health Outcomes | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Food/Agriculture | Health/Medicine | Oceania -
ArticlePublication 2017Cost-Effectiveness of a Clinical Childhood Obesity Intervention
This study estimated the cost-effectiveness of the STAR (Study of Technology to Accelerate Research) trial, …
This study estimated the cost-effectiveness of the STAR (Study of Technology to Accelerate Research) trial, an electronic health record (EHR)-based decision support intervention for primary care providers. Using a microsimulation model, the authors estimated the impact of a national implementation of STAR from 2015 to 2025 among all pediatric primary care providers in the U.S. with fully functional EHRs. The study found that over 10 years, the intervention would reach 2 million children, with costs…
Microsimulation | Costing Methods | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | North America -
ArticlePublication 2017Cost-Effectiveness of Subsidizing Fruit and Vegetable through SNAP
A diet high in fruits and vegetables is associated with reduced risk of chronic disease …
A diet high in fruits and vegetables is associated with reduced risk of chronic disease - to incentivize consumption among low-income households one proposal is to make them more affordable through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). This cost effectiveness analysis adopts a societal perspective to estimate the value of subsidizing fruit and vegetable (FV) purchases among the one in seven Americans who participate in SNAP. A stochastic microsimulation model of obesity, type 2 diabetes, myocardial infarction,…
Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants | Policy/Regulation | Economics/Finance | Food/Agriculture | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2015Modeling the Cost Effectiveness of U.S. Child Care Policy Changes
Risk factors for obesity, including dietary habits, physical activity, and screen time behaviors develop in …
Risk factors for obesity, including dietary habits, physical activity, and screen time behaviors develop in early childhood, highlighting the importance of early intervention for obesity prevention. With nearly 70% of American preschool-aged children in out-of-home childcare facilities, these programs serve as an ideal intervention target. This study estimated the effect of hypothetical state-level regulations focused on beverage consumption, physical activity, and screen time. Using a simulation model, the authors found these regulatory changes would reach…
Microsimulation | Mathematical Models | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Education/Labor | Food/Agriculture | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2015BMI and Healthcare Cost Impact of Eliminating Tax Subsidy for Advertising Unhealthy Food to Youth
Children in the U.S. are exposed to thousands of food-related TV advertisements, most of which …
Children in the U.S. are exposed to thousands of food-related TV advertisements, most of which promote nutritionally poor foods and drinks. Food marketers spend millions of dollars on youth-directed television each year, and these advertising expenditures are currently treated by the U.S. government as ordinary business expenses, meaning they receive a tax subsidy of nearly $80 million. This study estimated the cost-effectiveness of eliminating this tax subsidy. Using a simulation model, the authors found that…
Microsimulation | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants | Policy/Regulation | Culture/Society | Food/Agriculture | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2017Cost-Effectiveness Analysis to Prioritize Approaches to Obesity Prevention in Childhood
Recommended levels of physical activity (PA) promote a healthy body weight and reduce chronic disease …
Recommended levels of physical activity (PA) promote a healthy body weight and reduce chronic disease risk. To help prioritize investment in PA promotion initiatives, this study estimated the impact of six recommended strategies to increase physical activity in U.S. school, afterschool, and childcare settings. Using a microsimulation model, the authors found that the number children reached by the interventions ranged from 90,000 attending a Healthy Afterschool Program to over 31 million reached by Active School…
Microsimulation | Priority Setting/Ethics | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Policy/Regulation | Clinical Care | Climate/Environment | Education/Labor | Food/Agriculture | Health/Medicine | North America -
ReviewPublication 2011Simulation Models of Obesity: A Review of the Literature
Simulation models combine information from a variety of sources to provide a useful tool for …
Simulation models combine information from a variety of sources to provide a useful tool for examining how the effects of obesity unfold over time and impact population health. They can aid in the understanding of the complex interaction of the drivers of diet and activity and their relation to health outcomes. This paper provided an overview of different types of simulation models used to evaluate the potential impact of policies to address the obesity epidemic.…
Calibration/Validation | Microsimulation | State-Transition | Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Economics/Finance | Food/Agriculture | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2019Projected U.S. State-Level Prevalence of Adult Obesity and Severe Obesity
This analysis estimates state-specific and demographic subgroup-specific trends and projections of the prevalence of categories …
This analysis estimates state-specific and demographic subgroup-specific trends and projections of the prevalence of categories of body-mass index (BMI) in the United States. Self-reported BMI from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey (1993-1994 and 1999-2016) were obtained and corrected for quantile-specific self-reporting bias. Multinomial regressions were then fitted for each state and subgroup to estimate the prevalence of four BMI categories from 1990 through 2030: underweight or normal weight (BMI <25), overweight (25 to…
Calibration/Validation | Mathematical Models | Health Outcomes | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants | North America -
ArticlePublication 2022Excess Mortality and Elevated Body Weight in the U.S.
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by …
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by state and demographic subgroup. The authors developed a nationally-representative microsimulation (individual-level) model of US adults between 1999 and 2016, based on risk factor data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and body-mass index (BMI) mortality hazard ratios from a global pooling dataset. The model was calibrated to empirical all-cause mortality rates from CDC WONDER by state and subgroup, and…
Calibration/Validation | Microsimulation | Health Outcomes | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants | North America -
ArticlePublication 2019Estimation of Eating Disorders Prevalence by Age and Associations with Mortality in a Simulated Nationally Representative U.S. Cohort
This analysis models the individual-level disease dynamics of eating disorders (ED) in the United States, …
This analysis models the individual-level disease dynamics of eating disorders (ED) in the United States, and estimates the association of increased treatment coverage with ED-related mortality. Using an individual-level Markov state transition model calibrated to nationally-representative US survey data from 2007 and 2011, the authors simulated a virtual cohort of 100,000 individuals (50% male) from birth to age 40 years and modelled 4 ED diagnoses: anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, binge eating disorder, and other specified…
Calibration/Validation | Microsimulation | Health Outcomes | Child/Nutrition | Mental Health | North America
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