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ArticlePublication 2017Simulation of Growth Trajectories of Childhood Obesity into Adulthood
The authors developed a simulation model to estimate the risk of adult obesity at the age …
The authors developed a simulation model to estimate the risk of adult obesity at the age of 35 years for the current population of children in the United States. They used pooled height and weight data from five nationally representative longitudinal studies totaling 176,720 observations from 41,567 children and adults to simulate growth trajectories across the life course adjusted for secular trends. Using 1,000 virtual populations of 1 million children through the age of 19 years, representative of the…
Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2019Cost-Effectiveness of Community-Based Childhood Obesity Prevention Interventions in Australia
This study examined the cost-effectiveness of community-based obesity prevention interventions (CBIs) consisting of strategies to …
This study examined the cost-effectiveness of community-based obesity prevention interventions (CBIs) consisting of strategies to promote healthy eating and physical activity for Australian children aged between 5-18 years. A multiple cohort Markov model that simulates diseases associated with overweight and obesity was used to estimate the health benefits, measured as health-adjusted life years (HALYs) and healthcare-related cost offsets from diseases averted due to exposure to the intervention. Health and cost outcomes were estimated over the…
Health Outcomes | State-Transition | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Food/Agriculture | Health/Medicine | Oceania -
ArticlePublication 2015Cost Effectiveness of an Elementary School Active Physical Education Policy
While most elementary schools in the U.S. do require some physical education (PE), on average, …
While most elementary schools in the U.S. do require some physical education (PE), on average, students spend less than half of class time engaged in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). PE activity levels are lower when more class time is spent organizing students or reviewing rules, and when PE classes are led by classroom teachers instead of trained PE specialists. Policies aimed at increasing MVPA levels during PE class – “active PE” policies – have been…
Health Outcomes | Costing Methods | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Economics/Finance | Food/Agriculture | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2015Modeling the Cost Effectiveness of U.S. Child Care Policy Changes
Risk factors for obesity, including dietary habits, physical activity, and screen time behaviors develop in …
Risk factors for obesity, including dietary habits, physical activity, and screen time behaviors develop in early childhood, highlighting the importance of early intervention for obesity prevention. With nearly 70% of American preschool-aged children in out-of-home childcare facilities, these programs serve as an ideal intervention target. This study estimated the effect of hypothetical state-level regulations focused on beverage consumption, physical activity, and screen time. Using a simulation model, the authors found these regulatory changes would reach…
Health Outcomes | Costing Methods | Mathematical Models | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Health Systems | Clinical Care | Education/Labor | Food/Agriculture | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2015BMI and Healthcare Cost Impact of Eliminating Tax Subsidy for Advertising Unhealthy Food to Youth
Children in the U.S. are exposed to thousands of food-related TV advertisements, most of which …
Children in the U.S. are exposed to thousands of food-related TV advertisements, most of which promote nutritionally poor foods and drinks. Food marketers spend millions of dollars on youth-directed television each year, and these advertising expenditures are currently treated by the U.S. government as ordinary business expenses, meaning they receive a tax subsidy of nearly $80 million. This study estimated the cost-effectiveness of eliminating this tax subsidy. Using a simulation model, the authors found that…
Health Outcomes | Costing Methods | Microsimulation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants | Policy/Regulation | Culture/Society | Food/Agriculture | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2015Cost Effectiveness of Childhood Obesity Interventions: Evidence and Methods for CHOICES
As the childhood obesity epidemic continues in the U.S., fiscal crises are leading policymakers to …
As the childhood obesity epidemic continues in the U.S., fiscal crises are leading policymakers to ask not only whether an intervention works, but also whether it offers good value for money spent. This paper discussed the methods used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of four strategies to address the obesity epidemic: (1) a sugar-sweetened beverage excise tax; (2) eliminating the tax subsidy of TV advertising of unhealthy food to children; (3) early care and education policy…
Health Outcomes | Evidence Synthesis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants | Culture/Society | Government/Law | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2016Redrawing the U.S. Obesity Landscape: State-Specific Adult Obesity Prevalence
State-level estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) underestimate the obesity epidemic …
State-level estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) underestimate the obesity epidemic because they use self-reported height and weight. This study described a novel bias-correction method and produced corrected state-level estimates of obesity and severe obesity. Using non-parametric statistical matching, the authors adjusted self-reported data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) 2013 (n = 386,795) using measured data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (n = 16,924).…
Health Outcomes | Evidence Synthesis | Child/Nutrition | Health/Medicine | North America -
ArticlePublication 2011Health and Economic Burden of the Projected Obesity Trends in the U.S. and the U.K.
This study used a simulation model to project the health and economic consequences of a …
This study used a simulation model to project the health and economic consequences of a continued rise in obesity in the U.S. and U.K. by 2030. Trends in excess weight gain were forecasted to lead to an increased burden of several diseases, most notably cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and cancer. The study projects that there will be 65 million more adults with obesity in the U.S., and 11 million more in the U.K., leading to an…
Health Outcomes | Costing Methods | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Child/Nutrition | Chronic Disease/Risk | Economics/Finance | Food/Agriculture | Health/Medicine | North America | Europe -
ArticlePublication 2019Projected U.S. State-Level Prevalence of Adult Obesity and Severe Obesity
This analysis estimates state-specific and demographic subgroup-specific trends and projections of the prevalence of categories …
This analysis estimates state-specific and demographic subgroup-specific trends and projections of the prevalence of categories of body-mass index (BMI) in the United States. Self-reported BMI from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey (1993-1994 and 1999-2016) were obtained and corrected for quantile-specific self-reporting bias. Multinomial regressions were then fitted for each state and subgroup to estimate the prevalence of four BMI categories from 1990 through 2030: underweight or normal weight (BMI <25), overweight (25 to…
Health Outcomes | Mathematical Models | Calibration/Validation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants | North America -
ArticlePublication 2022Excess Mortality and Elevated Body Weight in the U.S.
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by …
This analysis estimates excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the United States by state and demographic subgroup. The authors developed a nationally-representative microsimulation (individual-level) model of US adults between 1999 and 2016, based on risk factor data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and body-mass index (BMI) mortality hazard ratios from a global pooling dataset. The model was calibrated to empirical all-cause mortality rates from CDC WONDER by state and subgroup, and…
Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Chronic Disease/Risk | Social Determinants | North America -
ArticlePublication 2019Estimation of Eating Disorders Prevalence by Age and Associations with Mortality in a Simulated Nationally Representative U.S. Cohort
This analysis models the individual-level disease dynamics of eating disorders (ED) in the United States, …
This analysis models the individual-level disease dynamics of eating disorders (ED) in the United States, and estimates the association of increased treatment coverage with ED-related mortality. Using an individual-level Markov state transition model calibrated to nationally-representative US survey data from 2007 and 2011, the authors simulated a virtual cohort of 100,000 individuals (50% male) from birth to age 40 years and modelled 4 ED diagnoses: anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, binge eating disorder, and other specified…
Health Outcomes | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Child/Nutrition | Mental Health | North America
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