MedCon: Pre-Event. Analyzing Medical Care Needs After a Disaster


"MedCon: Pre-Event" is an excel-based tool designed to estimate baseline medical care requirements following a disaster due to terrorism or natural phenomenon. The tool helps to estimate the number of persons that would require medical care following a disaster for a displaced population with pre-existing medical conditions. The intended users of the tool are public health preparedness planners at local, state, and federal levels involved in addressing the large scale medical care requirements resulting from man-made and natural disasters.

To effectively estimate the medical needs following a man-made or natural disaster, the following data is required: 1) size of population affected by disaster, 2) rate of hospitalization per day, 3) length of hospitalization, 4) rate of chronic health conditions (heart problems, hypertension, stroke, diabetes, cancer, respiratory problems, and musculoskeletal/ connective tissue problems) in the given population, 5) rates of nursing home beds requirement by age group, and 6) rates of special medical care needs by age group. Data inputs are from three nationally representative surveys (i.e., National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), National Hospital Discharge Survey (NHDS), and National Nursing Homes Survey (NNHS).

Outputs of the tool are presented in a table and include: 1) estimates of the daily rate of hospitalization, 2) the number of expected patients in nursing homes and 3) the demand for special medical care.



Adhikari BB, Shrestha SS, Atkins CY et al. MedCon: Pre-Event, A Tool to Aid Users to Estimate Pre-Event Population at Risk of Medical Consequences in a Disaster (Beta test version). U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2016.