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Dynamic Transmission Modeling: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Task Force-5

2012

This paper reports the consensus-based guidelines on dynamic transmission modeling in health care. The transmissible nature of communicable diseases is what sets them apart from other diseases modeled by health economists. The probability of a susceptible individual becoming infected at any one point in time (the force of infection) is related to the number of infectious individuals in the population, will change over time, and will feed back into the future force of infection. These nonlinear interactions produce transmission dynamics that require specific consideration when modeling an intervention that has an impact on the transmission of a pathogen.

Recommendations are provided for designing, building and best use of transmission models.

This paper is one of a 7-part series of articles on modeling good research practices based on a collaboration between the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) and the Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM).

The other articles include:

 

Source:

Pitman RJ, Fisman D, Zaric GS et al. Dynamic Transmission Modeling: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force Working Group-5. Value in Health 2012; 15: 828-834. https://doi.org/10.1177/0272989X12454578