Dynamic Transmission Modeling: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Task Force-5
2012
This paper reports the consensus-based guidelines on dynamic transmission modeling in health care. The transmissible nature of communicable diseases is what sets them apart from other diseases modeled by health economists. The probability of a susceptible individual becoming infected at any one point in time (the force of infection) is related to the number of infectious individuals in the population, will change over time, and will feed back into the future force of infection. These nonlinear interactions produce transmission dynamics that require specific consideration when modeling an intervention that has an impact on the transmission of a pathogen.
Recommendations are provided for designing, building and best use of transmission models.
This paper is one of a 7-part series of articles on modeling good research practices based on a collaboration between the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) and the Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM).
The other articles include:
- Modeling Good Research Practices – Overview: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-1
- Conceptualizing a Modeling: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-2
- State-Transition Modeling: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-3
- Modeling Using Discrete Event Simulation: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-4
- Model Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-6
- Model Transparency and Validation: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-7
Dynamic Transmission Modeling: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Task Force-5
Source:
Pitman RJ, Fisman D, Zaric GS et al. Dynamic Transmission Modeling: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force Working Group-5. Value in Health 2012; 15: 828-834. https://doi.org/10.1177/0272989X12454578