Videos: Part 1. Probability Revision and Bayes
2022
This multimedia segment, Part 1. Testing the Water, includes two videos. Students are introduced to the implications of imperfect information, acquire a conceptual understanding of Bayes theorem, and gain practical skills in performing probability revision. In addition to the videos, materials include an instructor's note, companion slides, a glossary, an annotated bibliography, sample exercises, and additional support.
In these two videos students take the position of a public health decision maker, responsible for a large community that is facing the possibility of toxic water.
Access the videos.
- Video 1.1 Should we test the water? (~11 min)
Students are introduced to the relationship between the prior probability of water toxicity, the performance of a test, and the posterior probability of toxicity conditional on a specific test result. - Video 1.2 How good is the test? (~13 min)
Students use a 2 x 2 table to visually sketch out the performance of a dichotomous test and visualize the relationship between the prior and posterior.
Multimedia segment Part 1. Testing the Water (Video 1.1, 1.2) should be followed by Part 2. Probability Revision (Video 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 2.4).
This teaching pack was developed by Sue J. Goldie at the Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. The multimedia components were developed as part of a series of pilots in the CHDS Media Hub, led by Jake Waxman, where media-based pedagogy experiments contribute to new ways of thinking about short form content.
Source:
Videos. Part 1. Testing the Water (Videos 1.1, 1.2). Teaching Pack: Probability Revision and Bayes. Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health 2022. https://repository.chds.hsph.harvard.edu/repository/2517