Bibliography: Probability Revision and Bayes

This glossary of terms supports the teaching pack on Probability Revision and Bayes, in which students are introduced to the implications of imperfect information, acquire a conceptual understanding of Bayes Theorem, and gain practical skills in performing probability revision. In addition to the glossary, materials include an instructor's note, videos, companion slides, an annotated bibliography, sample exercises, and additional support. Glossary of Terms Bayes' rule/Bayes formula Conditional probability Expected value False negatives (FN) False positives…

This multimedia segment, Part 2. Probability Revision, includes four videos. Students are introduced to the implications of imperfect information, acquire a conceptual understanding of Bayes theorem, and gain practical skills in performing probability revision. In addition to the videos, materials include an instructor's note, companion slides, a glossary, an annotated bibliography, sample exercises, and additional support. Students use the prior probability of water toxicity and the indices reflecting an imperfect test (e.g., sensitivity and specificity) to…

This instructor's note supports the teaching pack on Probability Revision and Bayes, in which students are introduced to the implications of imperfect information, acquire a conceptual understanding of Bayes theorem, and gain practical skills in performing probability revision. In addition to the instructor's note, materials include videos, companion slides, a glossary, an annotated bibliography, sample exercises, and additional support. Learning Objectives Demonstrate a conceptual understanding of Bayes’ theorem and probability revision. Differentiate between test characteristics (e.g.,…