Companion Slides: Probability Revision and Bayes

This annotated bibliography supports the teaching pack on Probability Revision and Bayes, in which students are introduced to the implications of imperfect information, acquire a conceptual understanding of Bayes theorem, and gain practical skills in performing probability revision. In addition to this bibliography, materials include an instructor’s note, videos, companion slides, a glossary, sample exercises, and additional support. This teaching pack was developed by Sue J. Goldie at the Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T.H.…

These three videos, produced by Khan Academy, focus on conditional probability. Conditional probability with Bayes' Theorem (~5 min). Created by Brit Cruise, this video presents conditional probability visually using trees. Conditional probability and independence (~4 min). This video uses conditional probability to see if events are independent or not. Conditional probability tree diagram (~11 min). This video uses a tree diagram to work out the following conditional probability question: If someone fails a drug test, what is the…

This sample exercise and solution set supports the teaching pack on Probability Revision and Bayes, in which students are introduced to the implications of imperfect information, acquire a conceptual understanding of Bayes theorem, and gain practical skills in performing probability revision. In addition to the sample exercise, materials include an instructor's note, videos, companion slides, a glossary, an annotated bibliography, and additional support. Learning Objectives Demonstrate a conceptual understanding of Bayes’ theorem and probability…