Heuristics with Joe Pliskin: Prevalence
2017
This video on the “prevalence” heuristic is part of a series of short videos introducing heuristics used in decision making. While these “mental shortcuts” are useful in some circumstances, they can also lead to more errors than deliberate, rational thinking. An awareness of these heuristics is of use to decision makers in all disciplines.
What do we mean by the “prevalence” heuristic? While sensitivity and specificity are “test characteristics” and do not change based on disease prevalence, positive and negative predictive values are heavily dependent on prevalence. This is often poorly understood by health professionals, as explained by Dr. Pliskin as he walks us through a proof in this video.
Access the video. Heuristics with Joe Pliskin: Prevalence (~10 min)
This series of videos on heuristics was developed by Professor Joe Pliskin at the Center for Health Decision Science during his residency with the CHDS Media Hub led by Jake Waxman. They reflect low-stakes prototypes in the multimedia lab to use "storytelling" and "personalization" to connect with learners. Joe Pliskin is an Adjunct Professor of Health Decision Science at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and Professor Emeritus at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Israel.
Heuristics with Joe Pliskin: Prevalence
Source:
Heuristics with Joe Pliskin: Prevalence. Teaching Pack: Heuristics with Joe Pliskin. Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health 2017. https://vimeo.com/250864859