Skip to Main Content

How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code and Emerged from Two Centuries of Controversy

2012

This book presents Bayes' rule to the general reader, providing a riveting account of an idea that has generated controversy in statistics and probability theory for over two hundred years. The rule is described in basic terms as a theorem using prior knowledge to enhance the probability of an event in conditions of uncertainty and scant information. The book explores Baye’s rule from its 18th century origins to the present, chronicling its emergence from 150 years of professional neglect to its game-changing role in the 2oth century when Alan Turing applied it to crack the German’s enigma code during World War II. More recent accounts illustrate the contribution of Baye’s rule to the development of personal computers, decoding DNA, and helping Homeland Security.  

 

Source:

McGrayne SB. The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy, 373, 10th Edition. Yale University 2012. https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300188226/theory-would-not-die