Resources Repository
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Teaching PackWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2023Teaching Pack: Heuristics with Joe Pliskin
This teaching pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, features videos introducing heuristics …
This teaching pack, curated by the Center for Health Decision Science, features videos introducing heuristics used in decision making. While these “mental shortcuts” can be useful in some circumstances, they can lead to more errors than deliberate, rational thinking. An awareness of these heuristics is useful to decision makers. This series of videos on heuristics was developed by Professor Joe Pliskin during his residency with the CHDS Media Hub led by Jake Waxman. They reflect…
Clinical Care | Probability/Bayes | Decision Theory | Decision Psychology | Preferences/Values | Chronic Disease/Risk | Business/Industry | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Quantitative Literacy -
ArticlePublication 2020Testing for SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies
Antibody testing can determine previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 virus. Recently, the UK government has made …
Antibody testing can determine previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 virus. Recently, the UK government has made antibody testing available to anyone wanting it, even if there is no clinical indication. The purpose of this article is to provide guidance for when to consider antibody testing in individuals with and without symptoms suggestive of current or past SARS-CoV-2 infection. Key points made by the authors include: (1) antibody testing is likely to be most useful 2 weeks…
Clinical Care | Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Technology Assessment | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine -
ToolInteractive 2020COVID-19 Antibody Tests: Calculator for Interpreting Test Results
Antibody testing can determine previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 virus. This interactive calculator, linked to the article …
Antibody testing can determine previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 virus. This interactive calculator, linked to the article below* on antibody testing for SARS-CoV-2 virus, allows users to vary the prior probability of infection, the sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing, and the specificity of SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing. Key points made in the article accompanying the interactive include: (1) antibody testing is likely to be most useful 2 weeks after infection, (2) sensitivity and specificity will vary over time and…
Clinical Care | Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Technology Assessment | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 2020Bayes' Theorem, COVID-19, and Screening Tests
This article reviews the implications of increased testing for COVID-19 using reverse transcriptase polymerase chain …
This article reviews the implications of increased testing for COVID-19 using reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) through the application of Bayes’ Theorem for three hypothetical, stylized case scenarios. The scenarios involve three patients with a low, moderate, and high pre-test probability of COVID-19 infection. The category of low probability would include "asymptomatic individuals in a presumed low prevalence environment" and might vary from 10 to 20%. The category of moderate probability would include "individuals…
Clinical Care | Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine -
Tools/ModelsInteractive, Teaching Resource 2020Interactive Graphic: Interpreting a COVID-19 Test Result
Currently, the most common diagnostic test for COVID-19 relies on reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction …
Currently, the most common diagnostic test for COVID-19 relies on reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), and most often uses samples obtained from the respiratory tract by nasopharyngeal swab. This interactive graphic demonstrates the influence of the prior probability of COVID-19, the test sensitivity (i.e., the probability of a positive test conditional on disease presence), and the test specificity (i.e., the probability of a negative test conditional on disease absence) on the post-test probability of…
Clinical Care | Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | High School | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Graphics/Visualization | Quantitative Literacy -
ArticlePublication 2020Clinical Decision Making: Using a Diagnostic Test
This article is part of a 6-part series on clinical decision making. The authors use …
This article is part of a 6-part series on clinical decision making. The authors use two clinical examples to review the principles of interpreting diagnostic test results. They outline an approach that can be used to determine how to select and apply tests and their results to the practice of internal medicine. Topics covered in the two case studies include sensitivity and specificity, positive predictive and negative predictive value of tests, and how to estimate…
Clinical Care | Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Health/Medicine -
Resource PortalWeb Portal, Teaching Resource 2024Millennium Mathematics Project (MMP)
The Millennium Mathematics Project (MMP), a collaboration between the Faculties of Mathematics and Education at the …
The Millennium Mathematics Project (MMP), a collaboration between the Faculties of Mathematics and Education at the University of Cambridge, is a maths education and outreach initiative for ages 3 to 19 and the general public. The focus is on increasing mathematical understanding, confidence and enjoyment, developing problem-solving skills, and promoting creative and imaginative approaches to maths. The project consists of a family of complementary programmes, including the NRICH website, Plus online mathematics magazine, Wild Maths, and…
Child/Nutrition | Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Mathematical Models | Decision Analysis | Risk Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Environmental Health | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Europe | High School | College | Graphics/Visualization | Quantitative Literacy -
Teaching PackPublication, Teaching Resource 2022Teaching Pack: Using Test Information I
In this teaching pack on Using Test Information I, students review the performance of a …
In this teaching pack on Using Test Information I, students review the performance of a dichotomous test and the relationship between sensitivity and specificity, calculate likelihood ratios to describe test performance, and conduct probability revision using the odds-LR form of Bayes. Materials include an instructor's note, videos, companion slides, a glossary, an annotated bibliography, and sample exercises. Learning Objectives Calculate four conditional probabilities describing the performance of a dichotomous test, and explain the…
Child/Nutrition | Probability/Bayes | Test Performance | Decision Analysis | Health/Medicine | College | Graduate | Doctoral | Professional | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Graphics/Visualization | Quantitative Literacy -
BookPublication 1980Clinical Decision Analysis
This text was conceived and developed in the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health …
This text was conceived and developed in the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health at the Center for the Analysis of Health Practices. The book had its origins in a set of classroom materials developed during the academic year 1974-75 for an elective course in medical decision making at the Harvard Medical School. In this book students are shown how to structure clinical decision problems, how to systematically formulate the intertwining roles of diagnosis and treatment, how to…
Child/Nutrition | Probability/Bayes | Preferences/Values | Costing Methods | Health Outcomes | Test Performance | Value of Information | State-Transition | Decision Analysis | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Global | North America | Europe | Graduate | Doctoral | Critical Thinking/Analysis | Decision Making/Leadership | Quantitative Literacy