Resources Repository
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ArticlePublication 2014Rise and Fall of HIV in High-Prevalence Countries: A Challenge for Mathematical Modeling
Several countries with generalized, high-prevalence HIV epidemics, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, have experienced rapid declines …
Several countries with generalized, high-prevalence HIV epidemics, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, have experienced rapid declines in transmission. These HIV epidemics, often with rapid onsets, have generally been attributed to a combination of factors related to high-risk sexual behavior. The subsequent declines in these countries began prior to widespread therapy or implementation of any other major biomedical prevention. This change has been construed as evidence of behavior change, often on the basis of mathematical models, but…
Health Outcomes | Sub-Saharan Africa | Mathematical Models | Infectious Diseases | Health/Medicine -
ArticlePublication 2013Estimated Mortality Impact of Vaccinations 2011–2020 in 73 GAVI Alliance Countries
From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted …
From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted by the GAVI Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the impact of vaccination in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance. The number of deaths averted in persons projected to be vaccinated during 2011–2020 was estimated for ten antigens: hepatitis B, yellow fever, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Japanese…
Health Outcomes | Sub-Saharan Africa | Mathematical Models | State-Transition | Dynamic Transmission | Microsimulation | Infectious Diseases | Global Governance | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology | Middle East & North Africa | Latin America & Caribbean | Asia & Pacific -
ArticlePublication 2011Health and Economic Impact of HPV 16/18 Vaccination and Cervical Cancer Screening in Eastern Africa
In this article the authors use epidemiologic data from Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe …
In this article the authors use epidemiologic data from Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe to develop models of HPV-related infection and disease. For each country, they assessed HPV vaccination of girls before age 12 followed by screening with HPV DNA testing once, twice, or three times per lifetime (at ages 35, 40, 45). For women over age 30, they assessed only screening (with HPV DNA testing up to three times per lifetime or VIA…
Sub-Saharan Africa | Microsimulation | Calibration/Validation | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Infectious Diseases | Chronic Disease/Risk | Clinical Care | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine | Science/Technology -
ArticlePublication 2010Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Pregnancy Termination Strategies in Nigeria and Ghana
To explore the policy implications of increasing access to safe abortion in Nigeria and Ghana, …
To explore the policy implications of increasing access to safe abortion in Nigeria and Ghana, the authors developed a computer-based decision analytic model which simulates induced abortion and its potential complications in a cohort of women. The model was used to compare the costs and benefits of unsafe abortion and three first-trimester abortion modalities: hospital-based dilatation and curettage, hospital- and clinic-based manual vacuum aspiration (MVA), and medical abortion using misoprostol (MA). The results showed that…
Sub-Saharan Africa | State-Transition | Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | Maternal/Reproductive Health | Culture/Society | Economics/Finance | Health/Medicine