Estimating Transition Probabilities for a Model
2018
This video is intended to provide a discussion on various methods for deriving probabilities that are needed for decision models. Presented are the concepts of literature based Odds Ratios and Relative Risks, which need to be transformed into probabilities, how to deal with probability estimates from time frames not relevant to the model in question, and how to derive probabilities from published summary statistics. This lecture is aimed at the researcher who is interested in operationalizing his or her own decision model.
This video is part of the Conducting Cost-Effectiveness Analysis with VA Data (HCEA) free course offered by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Health Services Research and Development group focused on cost-effectiveness analysis and budget impact analyses. There were a total of 12 videos produced between January and April 2018.
Other videos in this series include:
- New Recommendations for the Conduct of Cost-Effectiveness Analysis from the Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in Health and Medicine
- An Overview of Decision Analysis
- Estimating the Cost of an Intervention
- VA Costs: HERC versus MCA
- Introduction to Effectiveness, Patient Preferences, and Utilities
- Medical Decision Making and Decision Analysis
- Evidence Synthesis to Derive Model Transition Probabilities (Part I - Systematic Literature Review)
- Evidence Synthesis to Derive Model Transition Probabilities (Part II – Quantitative Pooling)
- Sensitivity Analyses
- Budget Impact Analysis
- How Can Cost Effectiveness Analysis be Made More Relevant to U.S. Health Care?
Estimating Transition Probabilities for a Model
Source:
Gidwani-Marszowski R. Estimating Transition Probabilities for a Model. Conducting Cost-Effectiveness Analysis with VA Data (HCEA). U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Health Services Research and Development 2018. https://www.hsrd.research.va.gov/for_researchers/cyber_seminars/archives/video_archive.cfm?SessionID=2401