Dynamic Policies for Controlling Spread of Emerging Infections
2011
This paper illustrates the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control of a novel strain of influenza, where two types of interventions are assumed to be available during the epidemic: (1) vaccines and antiviral drugs, and (2) transmission reducing measures, such as social distancing or mask use, that may be turned "on" or "off" repeatedly during the course of epidemic. A modeling approach is described for developing dynamic health policies that allow for adaptive decision-making as new data become available during an epidemic.
In this example, the optimal dynamic health policy maximizes the overall population's health during the epidemic by specifying at any point of time, based on observable conditions, (1) the number of individuals to vaccinate if vaccines are available, and (2) whether the transmission-reducing intervention should be either employed or removed.
In contrast to static health policies which have generally been selected by comparing the performance of a limited number of pre-determined sequences of interventions within simulation or mathematical models, dynamic health policies produce "real-time" recommendations for the choice of the best current intervention based on the observable state of the epidemic.
Dynamic Policies for Controlling Spread of Emerging Infections
Source:
Yaesoubi R, Cohen T. Dynamic Health Policies for Controlling the Spread of Emerging Infections: Influenza as an Example. PLOS ONE 2011; 6 (9): e24043. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0024043